THOU AT SET LOSE, O CAGED PEOPLE! (11)

Nations with long history of injustice, internecine conflicts, pervasive corruption, perennial religious disturbances, political instability, rickety economic institutions, corrosive tribal warfare and ethnic conflicts, nonguaranteed urban peace, security and order do not suddenly fall and eventually disintegrate but they first begin to crack. Nigeria began to crack almost immediately it attained “independence” from United Kingdom half a decade later and slaughtered themselves senselessly with over 1million souls perishing in the pogrom. Tanzanian first president, late Julius “Nwalimu” Nyerere explained his country’s recognition of the Republic of Biafra in 1966 that Nigeria, as was (still is) constituted cannot exist as a united nation-state for long because of the different nationalities that make up the country and he emphasized the divisive nature of religion and how the Hausa-Fulani Moslem North would continue to use Islam as a weapon for power legitimation and oppress the predominantly South-Eastern Christians. Late President Felix Houphet-Boigny of Ivory Coast (Cote d’Ivoire) who also recognized the break-away Republic of Biafra in the 1966 secession similarly echoed Nyeree’s analysis and subsequently offered Emeka Odumegwu-Ojukwu political asylum after the Nigerian-Biafran War. Now forty-two years after the analyses of these two African statesmen, Nigeria has witnessed one hundred and fifty major religious riots across the country. Christians were innocently slaughtered and the Nigerian government has been ruled by Moslems except in two instances. At the same period, over two hundred ethnic conflicts and tribal wars have been recorded. The U.S National Intelligence Group (NI) Report considered these traditional histories of Nigeria and predicted: “Some internal conflicts, particularly those that involve ethnic groups straddling national boundaries, risk escalating into regional conflicts.  At their most extreme, internal conflicts can produce a failing or failed state, with expanses of territory and populations devoid of effective governmental control.” This analysis is not rocket Science but human behaviors for as President-elect Barack Obama repeatedly said on the hustings, no nation or group of people can survive and attain greatness if the nation or people continue to do the same thing all over again and expect the same results.

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Before Eritreans decided to secede from Ethiopia, they endured unwarranted persecutions from the authoritarian monarchical government of late Emperor Haile Selassie. The East Timorese vehemently opposed the Indonesian government for nearly forty years because of religious persecution: Indonesians are Moslems, East Timorese are predominantly Christians. The two could not co-exist because of the nature of Islam as a religion. Ditto for Pakistan under India: the former is majority Moslem and the latter mostly Hindus. No nation has ever survived on persecuting its minorities and taking sides on religious differences. The Nigerian government has been in control of the Hausa-Fulani Northern Moslem since 1960-forget about Obasanjo who is their hireling for eleven “accidental “years-and in all those years, it has both overtly and covertly persecuted and join those persecuting Christians and ethnic nationalities in Nigeria. That psychopath called Abacha sordidly killed six ethnic minority rights crusaders to the consternation and bemusement of the world in 1994. If Ethiopia, Indonesia, India etc could not suppress their ethnic nationalities, Nigeria doesn’t have the institutional and political capacities to weld all its ethnic minorities into unified whole so the NI again analyzed all countries of the world and reported; “Weak governments, lagging economies, religious extremism, and youth bulges will align to create a perfect storm for internal conflict in certain regions.”

Today, Nigeria contains nearly 150 million inhabitants. By the year 2025, the country’s population is projected to double and majority of those souls will be under 40years of age. With the rate of unemployment in Nigeria, the economic strains on the Nigerian government to provide health care, housing, jobs, education etc to these teeming striplings will be greatly challenged. Social services will be stretched to the limit, armed robbery and stealing in both rural and urban centers will exponentially increase. Those who can survive will be greatly disturbed and will seek alternative countries to live. As NI aptly noted thus “ At the same time, the very concept of "belonging" to a particular state probably will erode among a growing number of people with continuing transnational ties to more than one country through citizenship, residence or other associations.” Two scenarios are discernible: a violent overthrow of the Nigerian Federal Government by a militia or a radical wing of the military. In the alternative, there will be astounding rise of ethnic militias and the metastases of tribal warlords, ethnic rights organizations and sheer brigands cashing in on weak political institutions to create self fiefdoms. Their activities would eclipse what MEND is currently doing and things would get worse because the price of oil would have significantly plummeted in the international market that those in “power” in Nigeria would have no extra petro-dollars to bribe and win ethnic loyalties. “ Where major states act as regional leaders, the potential for violence will be reduced. Absent such developments, the prospects for instability--as well as refugees, starvation, and ethnic conflict-- will mount. Nigeria… will not have the potential to play the role of ( a) leader in (West African sub-) region. Nigeria's economic mismanagement, corruption, and political instability will not be resolved over the next 15 years” the NI further reported.

The average Nigerian currently lives on less than $1 per day. The fat-cats who have stolen much from Nigerian oil will emigrate from the country immediately oil price falls in the international market and the Nigerian government officials will discover to their chagrin there is nothing to steal from the treasury. In order to keep government running, whoever heads the government when reality dawns will attempt to introduce taxation. This is a phenomenon that Nigerians are not used to, including the thieves in government and woe betides anyone who will tax an already burdened and economically-emaciated people! This is where literarily Nigerians will be at war because taxes come directly from the people’s pockets unlike petro-dollars which is “free gift of nature.” As I have pointed out elsewhere, whatever belongs to everybody belongs to no one and whoever steals what belongs to everybody literarily steals from no one. That is how the idiots running Nigeria see oil and cavalierly dip their hands into the public till. Majority of Nigerians aid the culture because the impact of such public larceny does not affect them directly but indirectly. That is why under the previous and current looting of state treasury, Nigerians do not have the culture of resistance but will gleefully tell anyone in public office: “This is your time! Literarily, it’s your time as a public office holder to steal from the public till through oil. Nigerians will pay dearly for such insensitivity very soon. But with taxation, it will be a new ball game and what late Afro-beat King Fela Anikulapo-Kuti sang in one of his lyrics” Public contribute plenty money. Na in authority people dey still” would become meaningful to Nigerians.

All over the world, taxes are the major revenue of governments; in Nigeria, it’s nearly 95% oil. All state machinery revolves round oil. Nigerian government cannot lift a finger; execute one major decision without oil. The thieves running around world capitals to deposit pilfered oil money will soon realize the party will be over. By the year 2012 before the end of President Obama’s first term, no Western nation, at least here in the United States will not need oil to sustain our lifestyles. Other European nations too are frantically searching for alternative source of oil and once America achieves that oil independence which is right now on the track, it will share the technology with Europe. Nigeria, their friends in the Middle East, Venezuela and the so-called OPEC will discover to their chagrin that oil global power will diminish because oil would have lost its global political power. The fall of Oil Global Political Power will exacerbate internal conflicts in Nigeria with the resultant effect that Nigeria will depend on the United States and other Developed countries to maintain its fragile unity. The response of the Western World is historically predictable. Meanwhile, “South Africa and Nigeria, the continent's largest economies, will remain the dominant powers in the region through 2015. But their ability to function as economic locomotives and stabilizers in their regions will be constrained by large unmet domestic demands for resources to stimulate employment, growth, and social services, including dealing with AIDS,” the NI noted. Because Nigeria and the entire West African sub-region “will continue to be home to the poorest, least healthy, and most ethnically conflicted people in the world” it is apposite to surmise that against the backdrop of these adumbrated external and internal pulls, Nigeria cannot remain as one indivisible nation. The North and its power-brokers will be hard-pressed to re-analyze and re-assess their continued presence in the larger Nigeria because the oil that has been oiling the pedestrian and profligate lifestyles of its self-centered elites would have diminished considerably and there won’t be anything to steal at the federal level. Meanwhile, the Southerners would be seething with angst and bitterness, indeed the South Eastern people would be mad that, for over half a century, their land produced billions of petro-dollars and there is absolutely nothing to show for it in their part of the geographical expression called Nigeria and would now be determined to leave the Nigerian federation by force. The Yorubas would count on their human resources while Nigerians currently scattered in the Diaspora would be favorably disposed to balkanization. When you combine these centrifugal and centripetal forces together, you have full recipes for disaster. Suddenly, it will be everybody to its tents. These are scenarios that jell with certain historical dialects that I pointed out last week.

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As the NI report adequately analyzed these scenarios, I quote verbatim relevant portions to our analysis so that Nigerians can tear apart their futures which their leaders have eaten: “Overall, the number of states—which has more than tripled since 1945 and has grown 20 percent since 1990—is likely to increase at a slower rate through 2015. This growth will result from remaining cases of decolonization and to communal tensions leading to state secession, most likely in Sub-Saharan Africa… (emphasis mine) In some cases, new states will inspire other secessionist movements, destabilizing countries where minorities were not initially seeking secession. Many internal conflicts, particularly those arising from communal disputes, will continue to be vicious, long-lasting and difficult to terminate—leaving bitter legacies in their wake. They frequently will spawn internal displacements, refugee flows, humanitarian emergencies, and other regionally destabilizing dislocations. If left to fester, internal conflicts will trigger spillover into inter-state conflicts as neighboring states move to exploit opportunities for gain or to limit the possibilities of damage to their national interests. Weak states will spawn recurrent internal conflicts, threatening the stability of a globalizing international system. Internal conflicts stemming from state repression, religious and ethnic grievances, increasing migration pressures, and/or indigenous protest movements will occur most frequently in Sub-Saharan Africa,…. The United Nations and several regional organizations will continue to be called upon to manage some internal conflicts because major states—stressed by domestic concerns, perceived risk of failure, lack of political will, or tight resources—will wish to minimize their direct involvement. When, however, some Western governments, international and regional organizations, and civil-society groups press for outside military intervention in certain internal conflicts, they will be opposed by such states as China, India, Russia and many developing countries that will tend to view interventions as dangerous precedents challenging state sovereignty. Poverty and poor governance will further deplete natural resources and drive rapid urbanization. As impoverished people flee unproductive rural areas, many cities will double in population by 2015, but resources will be inadequate to provide the needed expansion of water systems, sewers, and health facilities. Cities will be sources of crime and instability as ethnic and religious differences exacerbate the competition for ever scarcer jobs and resources. The number of malnourished people will increase by more than 20 percent and the potential for famine will persist where the combination of internal conflict and recurring natural disasters prevents or limits relief efforts. Conditions for economic development in Sub-Saharan Africa are limited by the persistence of conflicts, poor political leadership and endemic corruption, and uncertain weather conditions. Africa's most talented individuals will shun the public sector or be lured abroad by greater income and security.( This has already taken place all over Africa and Third World countries with millions of their professionals deserting their homelands for greener pastures in developed countries. The phenomenon known as Brian Drain has and is still costing Nigeria and other underdeveloped countries human and material sufferings). The NI continued: Effective and conscientious leaders are unlikely to emerge from undemocratic and corrupt societies. Most technological advances in the next 15 years—with the possible exception of genetically modified crops—will not have substantial positive impact on the African economies. Although West Africa will play an increasing role in global energy markets, providing 25 percent of North American oil imports in 2015, the pattern of oil wealth fostering corruption rather than economic development will continue. There will be exceptions to this bleak overall outlook. The quality of governance, rather than resource endowments, will be the key determinant of development and differentiation among African states. The atrophy of special relationships between European powers and their former colonies in Africa will be virtually complete by 2015. Filling the void will be international organizations and non-state actors of all types: transnational religious institutions; international nonprofit organizations, international crime syndicates and drug traffickers; foreign mercenaries; and international terrorists seeking safe havens. Fundamentalist movements, especially proselytizing Islamic groups, will plow fertile ground as Africans seek alternative ways to meet their basic needs. Internal conflicts will attract—and leaders will in some cases welcome —foreign criminal organizations or mercenaries to assist in the plundering of national assets, while faltering regimes will willingly trade their sovereignty for cash. International organizations will be heavily engaged in Sub-Saharan Africa over the next 15 years, given its growing needs and slow growth relative to other regions. Africa will continue to receive more development assistance per capita than other regions of the world. The international financial institutions will be a continuing presence in Africa, as many donor countries funnel development assistance through them. The perpetuation of poor governance and communal conflicts in a region awash with guns will generate frequent natural and man-made humanitarian crises, precipitating international humanitarian relief efforts.”

The reality is that when you see the signs of a failed state, you don’t need to be a Political Scientist to understand that historically, nations that have exhibited such signs in the past eventually went their separate ways. Now for those who believe in Divine Intervention just like as I do, these are scenarios at best. But if Nigeria continues the current path it is threading, there is no Divine Intervention that can save that land for as God Almighty Himself said about history: “ for I the Lord thy God am a jealous God, visiting the iniquity of the fathers upon the children unto the third and fourth generation of them that hate me” Exodus 20; 5) and again; “If my people, which are called by my name, shall humble themselves, and pray, and seek my face, and turn from their wicked ways; then will I hear from heaven, and will forgive their sin, and will heal their land”
(11 Chronicles 7:14) Concluded.